Jiva Technology

Where is this revolution in digital media taking us? Part 1.

Richard Wright’s blog posts, on the parlous state of a book publishing industry that’s being lashed by the twin storms of digital distribution and ebooks, are another reminder of the amazing revolution that’s taking place in the way we access and ‘consume’ many forms of culture in an increasingly digital age; be it books, film, music or television.  Digital distribution has magnified the forces at play many-fold, but this revolution is not just an ‘internet thing’, it’s been going on for some time and to a certain extent pre-dates the commercial internet, as Richard points out. To take the book industry* as an example, the concentration of buying power created giants like Borders that become subsequently dinosaurs in an incredibly short period.

Gil Scott-Heron famously told us the revolution will not be televised. He was right (who watches tv anymore), but it is being blogged about, talked about and tweeted. What surprises me is just how one-sided the discussion is: plenty of comment documenting the problems bedevilling the existing order, but precious little regarding how this revolution will finally play out. Just what will the brave new world look like? I want to know – I’ve got home cinema decisions to be made!

Maybe this asymmetry is simply another case of our natural fascination for bad news or it could be due to the fact that thinking this through is both challenging and time consuming … I know, I’ve tried (more on that later). However, I can’t think of a single instance where I saw someone lay out a vision of the future that spanned books, film, tv and music. It’s not hard to see that they can come together in one place in our home, but how will the nuts and bolts of access and consumption actually work? Do we really think that Steve Jobs didn’t have a vague idea where this was all going, or that Jeff Bezos might somehow have an interest in it? So if someone can point me in the right direction – I’m looking for the blog post from Steve Jobs that answers the simple question, “so how will this all play out Steve?”

If it doesn’t exist, then it’s because Jobs didn’t want to give the competition the keys to the golden kingdom. The global, digital media market is going to be the mother and father of all markets in the 21st century and Apple (and to a certain extent Amazon) have first mover advantage. That map of the future is probably better guarded than the formula for Coke. Of course, that doesn’t mean we can’t or shouldn’t speculate and someone has to go first, so over the next few posts, I thought I’d step in Steve’s shoes and speculate on how that map might look ….

* Note: it seems only right that I should declare that I have a vested interest in the revolution, both as an investor and Board Member at Ebooks Corporation and as a human being with a healthy respect and appreciation of the Creative Arts.